UK Spring Statement: Does It Matter for Fleet Operators?
Written by
Thursday 5th March 2026
Last updated: 9th March 2026
The UK Spring Statement is rarely expected to deliver major policy changes, and this year’s announcement was no exception. Given the complex array of challenges facing the government, the Chancellor was surely hoping for something of a fiscal non-event. And if that was the aim, then it was largely delivered. As expected, there were no significant announcements or policy changes, and much of the speech was given over to a mixture of reassurance for the future and plaudits for current performance.
So, does the Spring Statement really matter to fleet operators? The simple answer is yes. Although growth may be fragile and momentum weak, things are (just about) heading in the right direction and a healthier economy is good for everyone. But it also matters because of what the Chancellor didn’t do and what this means for fleet operators and drivers alike. First, let’s take a look at the headline figures.
The economy brightens (just a little bit)
The OBR downgraded its growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points for 2026, taking it to 1.1%, with a rise to 1.6% in 2027 and 2028, and then 1.5% in both 2029 and 2030. However, it is easy to forget that this is just an estimate of what could happen based on the currently available evidence. The OBR has a legal obligation to produce economic and fiscal forecasts at least twice each fiscal year and, especially in recent years, forecasts have frequently moved up and down.
The Chancellor was keen to point out that GDP per capita is set to grow by 5.6% over the course of this Parliament. It’s a figure that some argue is a more accurate reflection of growth because it takes into account the size of the population. After all, if GDP and the population both grow, then depending on the rate of both, the overall fiscal picture could still be negative.
Nevertheless, the elephant in the room is the current conflict in the Middle East, the timing of which meant that any impact is totally unaccounted for in the present reports and predictions.
The rising price of oil
The reality is that if oil prices are sustained at the current level, they will be about 20% higher than the Chancellor was expecting at the time of the last Budget. As a result, she is likely to be under pressure to delay the planned rises in fuel duty, which will increase by 1p from 1 September 2026, 2p from 1 December 2026, and 2p from 1 March 2027.
The other challenge is the impact on inflation. So far, the news has been good in that the OBR expects inflation to fall towards the 2% target over the forecast period, averaging 2.3% in 2026 and returning to 2% in 2027. That said, oil prices could easily add between 0.2% and 0.3% to the prevailing rate.
Falling inflation invariably means a cut in the Bank of England’s base rate. The first opportunity for that to happen is 19 March, and there are then a further six opportunities through the rest of the year to make a cut. Good news for the cost of money, less so for savers.
Fiscal headroom rises to £23.6bn
We already knew that Ms Reeves would have more money to play with, but although £23.6bn sounds like a lot of money, it’s actually fairly typical and somewhere below the average buffer held since 2010 of between £27bn and £29bn.
Headroom is important because it creates opportunities to allocate additional funds to projects and initiatives fleet operators and drivers care about, such as equalising VAT on public and home charging, increasing infrastructure, and fixing the ubiquitous potholes. It also influences decisions on taxation and incentives.
What didn’t happen... but should have done
This was a missed opportunity to provide some much-needed support for EV drivers, and Novuna Vehicle Solutions' Managing Director, Jon Lawes, responded to the Spring Statement by urging the government to take more decisive action, saying:
“With no new measures to ease the burden of rising running costs, drivers are being left to cope with the financial pressures of eVED and wider motoring costs on their own. This lack of policy action risks undermining confidence and leaves drivers without the reassurance they need to make the switch.”
What happens next?
As you would expect, the Chancellor painted as positive a picture as she could, reporting that she expects to have an additional £15bn to spend by reducing debt interest to the G7 average. There was also the claim that people can expect to be £1,000 better off a year in real terms by the time of the next election.
This may or may not come to pass, and Ms Reeves may well argue that any lack of action or change in policy is simply due to the fact that she is committed to only one major fiscal event each year, i.e. the Autumn Budget. One thing is clear, the economic outlook may have brightened a little, but there are still many challenges ahead, some of which are within the government’s control and others far less so.
Whatever the future brings, you can be sure that we will be watching closely, ready to help you manage today while preparing for what tomorrow may bring. To find out more, just get in touch.
All figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (2026)