The Spring Statement 2026: What Can We Expect?
Written by
Thursday 26th February 2026
Last updated: 26th February 2026
With just one major fiscal event each year, the Spring Statement on 3 March will mainly focus on the state of the economy, including forecasts for growth, inflation, and employment. We will also get to see whether the government is on track to meet its self-imposed fiscal rules, such as balancing day-to-day spending and reducing national debt.
While no major policy announcements are expected, previous statements have included confirmations of heavily trailed policies, refinements to previously announced plans and even the occasional rollback of an unpopular measure.
The Economy
The state of the nation’s finances is gradually improving, but many economists worry that the pace is simply too slow, and the fact that GDP grew by just 0.1% in the last quarter of 2025 highlights the fragile state of the economy and the lack of forward momentum.
CPI inflation stubbornly remains above the Bank of England target of 2%. While the target was briefly met in the summer of 2024, prices have since crept back up, rising by 3% in the year to January 2026. However, the consensus seems to be that a further fall to somewhere close to 2% is on the cards before the end of the year. As inflation falls, the BoE base rate tends to follow suit, the first opportunity for this to happen is 19 March.
While a reduction in the bank rate is good news for anyone borrowing money, there are sizeable challenges elsewhere, with unemployment rising to 5.2% in the final quarter of 2025. That’s the highest since early 2021, during the immediate aftermath of COVID-19.
How will the UK be affected by Trump’s tariffs?
President Trump’s global tariffs have the potential to increase cost pressures across globally integrated automotive supply chains, affecting everything from vehicle manufacturing to replacement parts. In turn this could easily feed through into higher acquisition costs, longer lead times and greater pricing volatility, particularly where vehicles or key components cross multiple borders before reaching the UK.
For fleet operators, the risk is less about a single headline tariff and more about sustained uncertainty, currency fluctuations and inflationary pressures. In short, trade friction elsewhere can reshape economics at home, thus reinforcing the need for flexible funding structures, strong supplier engagement and scenario-based cost planning.
A budget surplus is not cash in the bank
January is typically a good month for tax receipts, thanks largely to self-assessment payments falling due, but the £133.3bn received has created the highest surplus in any one month since records began over 30 years ago. However, we should point out that this figure doesn’t take account of inflation.
Initial estimates show that the budget surplus is £6.3 billion above the Office for Budget Responsibility’s previous forecast. This sounds good, but we should remember that this is simply a forecasting variance, not a pot of unallocated cash ready to be spent on things fleet operators and drivers care about, such as cancelling the planned fuel duty rises, aligning VAT on public and home charging, or increasing the funds assigned to fix Britain's broken roads.
In reality, public finances fluctuate wildly from month to month. Self-assessment receipts, corporation tax timing, departmental spend profiles and debt interest payments can all distort short-term figures. What looks like a comparatively healthy amount of headroom can quickly disappear. After all, the current budget deficit (excluding capital investment) in the financial year to January 2026 sits at £55.9bn, and a significant share of revenue is already absorbed by servicing debt.
Updates on Budget 2025 measures
The Spring Statement is sometimes used to provide an update on policy announcements, but in terms of fleet, we are not expecting any significant news. Most of the changes announced in November, such as the staged increase in fuel duty from September 2026, the Expensive Car Supplement threshold rising to £50,000 for EVs, and the tax easement for PHEV drivers, are all pretty much set in stone.
One of the most significant and controversial measures announced in November was the introduction of a 3p per-mile charge for EV drivers, alongside a 1.5p per-mile charge for PHEVs, which applies whether those miles are driven using electric or petrol power.
This is now in the final stage of a consultation designed to seek views on the:
Design of the scheme (known as eVED) - how the pay-per-mile charge should be set up and administered, without intrusive technology like trackers
Mileage reporting and compliance - how drivers or fleets estimate and verify miles driven
Implementation arrangements - including integration with DVLA processes and reconciliation mechanisms
Alongside the official Government consultation closing on 18 March 2026, there has also been industry engagement and parliamentary scrutiny, including a Transport Select Committee inquiry looking at the wider EV transition and charges like eVED.
There is a long way to go yet, and implementation is not expected before April 2028, but fleets will be looking for clarity and impact analysis that helps them plan for the inevitable extra costs, not just in taxation but in administration and management.
Will the Spring Statement be a fiscal non-event?
We will have to wait and see, but many will hope the answer is yes. Significant changes so soon after a Budget can sometimes do more harm than good and have the potential to create instability and uncertainty, two things the markets desperately want to avoid. Given that there hasn’t been any significant change to the UK’s economic outlook, there’s no real pressure for the Chancellor to make any changes. So what’s the point? In short, the OBR has a legal obligation to produce economic and fiscal forecasts at least twice each fiscal year, and the Chancellor has a responsibility to respond each time.
Nevertheless, we will keep a close eye on the Chancellor’s speech, ready to analyse what is and isn’t included and what it means for fleet operators and drivers, thus ensuring you have all the information needed to make fully informed fleet decisions. To find out more about how we can help, just get in touch.